Going by the past experiences of the spineless, cowardly, apologetic and submissive Congress led Indian Govt’s response, Pakistani political and military establishments could never anticipate the strong, massive and effective response of the Narendra Modi led current Indian Govt to the ceasefire violation by Pakistan at the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border. They are shocked by the ferocity and volume of India’s retaliation and now running for cover in the face of India's onslaught. Given complete freedom to act by the Govt, the Indian Army and Border Security Force are firing back at will from every spot the Pakistanis have targeted and systematically destroying the Pak military infrastructure as well as killing both military and civilian on that side. India's retaliation has been so effective that Pakistani television channels have been directed by the Pak military and ISI to completely black out any media coverage of the damage caused on the Pakistani side and not to show any visual of the casualties or damage on the ground. Even the Pakistani newspaper “Dawn”, which was covering these incidents widely, have been asked on wednesday by the Pak Army to tone down reports about killing and damage on the Pakistani side. Pakistan's military establishment is on the verge of losing face and not liking the evolving situation as in Pak occupied Kashmir (POK), demonstrations by the common people have already started against Pak Govt (Hindi news channel “India TV” had covered the same extensively last night).
Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh told Pakistan in no uncertain terms when he reminded Islamabad that "times have changed in India", implying that this is a different Govt. which will not bend to Pakistan’s bullying tactics and misadventures. Both defence Minister Arun Jaitley and National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval have instructed the Indian Security forces to go all out and given them total freedom to retaliate as they deem fit. This is a never before stance of India against Pakistan. This marks an unprecedented toughening of India's stand on border standoffs. Similar resistance was shown by India during the stand-off in eastern Ladakh's Chumar area last month. After India refused to budge, China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA) vacated its positions in the disputed territory and agreed to the old positions.
But if we carefully analyse, we find that since May’14, the new Indian Govt has completely changed its policy and strategy towards Pakistan in its dealings and responses. These are part of a series of deft diplomatic moves that India adopted since Modi became Prime Minister to block every attempt by Pakistan to internationalise the Kashmir issue or humiliate India politically & militarily by promoting the terror machinery as their strategic asset to gain upper hand in the Kashmir dispute. To begin with, immediately after Modi Govt came to power it declared the UN Military Observer Group (UNMOGIP) irrelevant and made them vacate the Govt. accommodation they were using as their office in New Delhi for decades. Then it took tough measures against the terror organizations, their sympathisers and supports in J&K by hunting down and eliminating many terrorists during encounters in last few months. Also it told the Hurriyat and other such over ground Pakistani support groups that their days are numbered, if they don’t change their stance and tactics. The never before security measures resulted in the lowest ever infiltration of terrorists into Indian territory from the Pak Jihad factories across the border in decades. According to figures compiled by the Army HQ and intelligence agencies, compared to 270 infiltration attempts along the LoC last year, this year only 90 have been made from Pakistan. While in 2013, 90 militants reportedly managed to sneak into J&K, this year only 24 have been successful. June-Oct is the period of the year when infiltration attempts are made by terrorists with cover fire assistance from the Pak army due to melting of snow. Then calling off the foreign secretary level dialogue with Pakistan because of its continued parleys with Hurriyat leaders was a master stroke which put Pakistan in its place infront of the Jihadi elements in both Pakistan and India, the sympathisers and supporters of the Kashmir cause in Pakistan, India as well as all over the world. India scored the biggest victory when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing the UN General Assembly in New York ensured that Kashmir was not allowed to dominate the agenda and gave befitting reply to Pak PM Sharif by putting all onus on Pakistan for restoring talks and made it very clear that terror and talks can’t go together and India will only talk on its “terms & conditions” . This made the Kashmir issue became irrelevant internationally and Pakistan lost its “K card” to score points over India internally and internationally. Pakistan’s latest attempt at ceasefire violation is mainly for 4 reasons - Firstly, they historically pushed militants to J&K during June-Oct period to reinforce their strength before snow makes the border areas inaccessible. Secondly, after the rebuff they received from India in the form of cancellation of foreign secy. level talks and in UN general assembly, Pakistan wants to bring the Kashmir issue to the forefront again. Thirdly, due to the above incidents, Pakistani political and military establishments have lost their credibility infront of the Jihadi elements in Pakistan as well as in India specially in J&K and trying to reinforce their credibility. Fourthly, Pak Army is concerned that BJP may do well in the forthcoming assembly elections in J&K and thus may result in a major shift in politico-economic-military situation in J&K.
Modi Govt’s unprecedented, massive and effective response and retaliation has made the Pakistani political and military establishment run for cover. Not finding any escape route, they petitioned UNO for asking India to stop the “ceasefire violation”. But Pakistan has tied itself into knots after even the UN has refused to intervene and told them unambiguously that Pakistan needs to sort this and all problems bilaterally with India. On the other hand, Indian Govt. is prepared for a long haul and has instructed its security forces to keep retaliating to inflict maximum damage on Pakistani infrastructure and manpower. India has even refused “flag meetings” requested by Pakistan to discuss the firings till they stop all cross border firing and infiltration as it wants to underline the point that Islamabad cannot dictate the terms of dialogue. Pakistani defence analysts have admitted that Pakistan’s aim of targeting India to divert attention of Pakistani people from the internal strife and to test the new Indian government has clearly backfired. India does not want to give any space to Pakistan that can dilute or weaken the new Govts. basic condition of 'no dialogue in the shadow of gun and terror'. As under Narendra Modi, India is making Pakistan pay a heavy price for its misadventures, he has become a target of Pakistani thinkers, strategists, media and jihadi elements. Therefore, “Hate Modi” is trending in social media and hackers are attacking Govt. of India websites. Some Indian intellectuals, politicians and media are also attacking Modi for taking such hardline against Pakistan as these elements “bake their bread” on so called “Aman Ki Asha” projects and back channel diplomacy. But anybody who is sympathetic to Pakistan or its actions can’t be a true Indian and these elements need to be decimated by the Govt. once and for all as they are a threat to our sovereignty, integrity and security.
I have always maintained that the problem we are facing today from Pakistan is more a creation of our “inactions” of last 67 years, than the “actions” of Pakistan. A misconception has been fed into the minds of millions of Indians over the years by our spineless, cowardice, power hungry, corrupt and incompetent politicians mainly from the Congress and Communist background backed by equally unfit and corrupt bureaucracy that a “strong & stable” Pakistan is in India’s interest. Thus, it was a clear case of failure of Indian political decision making and the result of shoddy & visionless strategic planning of certain unfit and incompetent politicians and their foreign policy/security advisers that India allowed Pakistan becomes a monster. The consequence of this colossal failure is that Indian establishment’s cowardliness has endangered the integrity, sovereignty and security of Indian state and its citizens. India has been tolerating Pakistan and its evil design for far too long with patience and magnanimity, which has been attacking and humiliating us at every opportunity. This approach has obviously not worked and our “generosity” has been mistaken as our “weakness”. Pakistan needs to realize that there is a severe price to be paid for the dangerous game it has been playing with us. We must stop hoping that if we pamper Pakistan with our acts of kindness, which we have been doing for last 67 years and indulge in our “Aman Ki Asha” projects, they will suddenly have this monumental change of heart and become our best friend & neighbour. We need to stop the peace charades, confidence building measures, cultural, sporting, economic ties and stop deluding ourselves that we are not at war with Pakistan (which we are for the last 67 years). The Modi Govts. long term objective and interest is the negation of this failed rogue state for our own benefit and the benefit of a peaceful and civilized world order.